Qatar Wants To Buy Airline Stocks; Should You? Investing Action Plan

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June 5, 9: DUBAI — A diplomatic rift between Qatar and its Gulf neighbours may cost them billions of dollars by slowing trade and investment and making it more expensive for the region to borrow money as it grapples with low oil prices. A drop in Qatari bond prices on Monday suggested the borrowing will become more expensive — possibly slowing some projects.

Bonds of other countries in the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council barely moved on Monday, but some foreign bankers said the whole region could end up paying more to borrow if diplomatic tensions persisted. If Qatar is seen as a terror financing or compliance issue, then asset managers will be cautious. Because they all rely heavily on oil and gas exports, the GCC states have only weak trade and investment ties with each other, which will limit the economic fallout of their dispute.

Similarly, Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries traditionally account for only about 5 to 10 per cent of trading on the Qatari stock market, according to exchange data, suggesting even a total pull-out would not sink the market.

Nevertheless, Qatar will face higher costs in some areas. Much of them, especially dairy products, came over the Saudi land border; Doha will have to make other arrangements for them. Construction costs in Qatar could also rise, fuelling inflation across the economy, because aluminum and other building materials can no longer be imported by land.

Trade and investment went on much as before. It is not clear that Riyadh will be able to persuade more countries to cut links with Doha. But it could try to force foreign companies to make a choice between doing business with Qatar and obtaining access to its own, much larger market, which it is opening up as part of economic reforms. Cairo-based bankers said on Monday that some Egyptian banks had halted dealings with Qatari banks. It was not clear whether GCC banks would do the same; UAE commercial bankers told Reuters they were waiting for guidance from their central bank.

Stock markets in Dubai and several other Gulf centers fell on Monday — although not by nearly as much as Qatar — in a sign that investors around the region were worried.

But what we have seen is a gradual escalation. A diplomatic rift between Qatar and its Gulf neighbours may cost them billions of dollars by slowing trade and investment. Filed under News Economy. Qatar and its Gulf neighbours could lose billions from rift in Middle East.

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