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Prediction markets also known as predictive marketsinformation marketsdecision binare aktionidea futuresevent derivativesor virtual markets are exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events.
The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is. Prediction markets can be thought of as belonging to the more general concept of crowdsourcing which is specially designed to aggregate information on particular topics of interest.
The main purposes of prediction markets are eliciting aggregating beliefs over an unknown future outcome. Traders with different beliefs trade on contracts whose payoffs are related to the unknown future outcome and the market prices of the contracts are considered as the binare aktion belief. Before the era of scientific polling, early forms binare aktion prediction markets often existed in the form of political betting. One such political betting can date back towhere people would bet on who will be the papal successor.
Economic binare aktion for the ideas behind prediction markets can be credited to Friedrich Hayek binare aktion his article " The Use of Knowledge in Society " and Ludwig von Mises in his " Economic Calculation binare aktion the Socialist Commonwealth ". Modern binare aktion agree that Mises' argument combined with Hayek's elaboration of it, is binare aktion . The journal was first published inand is available online and in print.
The ability of the prediction market to aggregate binare aktion and make accurate predictions is based on the Efficient Market Hypothesiswhich states that assets prices are binare aktion reflecting all available information. For instance, existing share prices always include all the relevant related information binare aktion the stock market to make accurate predictions.
Surowiecki raises 3 necessary conditions for collective wisdom: The market itself has a character of decentralization compared to expertise decisions. Because of these reasons, predictive market is generally binare aktion valuable source to capture collective wisdom and make accurate predictions. Prediction markets have an advantage over other forms of forecasts due to the following characteristics.
Next, they obtain truthful and relevant information through financial and other forms of incentives. Prediction markets can incorporate new information quickly and are difficult to manipulate. The accuracy of the prediction market in different conditions has been studied and proven by numerous researchers. Due to the accuracy of the prediction market, it has been binare aktion to different industries to make important decisions.
Although prediction markets are often fairly accurate and successful, there are many times the market fails in making the right prediction or making one at all. However, this information gathering technique can also lead to the failure binare aktion the prediction market. Oftentimes, the people in these crowds are skewed in their independent judgements due to peer pressure, panic, bias, and other breakdowns developed out of a lack of diversity of opinion.
Binare aktion of the main constraints and limits of the wisdom of binare aktion is that some prediction questions require specialized knowledge that majority of people do not have. The second market mechanism is the idea of the marginal-trader hypothesis.
The method is binare aktion off the idea of taking confidence into account when evaluating the accuracy of an answer. The method asks people two things for each question: What they binare aktion the right answer is, and what they think popular opinion will be. The variation between the two aggregate responses indicates the correct answer.
The effects of manipulation and biases are also internal challenges prediction markets need to deal with, i. Prediction markets may also be subject to speculative bubbles. There can also be direct attempts to manipulate such markets. In binare aktion Tradesports presidential markets there was an apparent manipulation effort. An anonymous trader sold short so many Bush presidential futures contracts that the price was driven to zero, implying a zero percent chance that Bush would win.
The only rational purpose of such a trade would be an attempt to manipulate the market in a strategy called a " bear raid ". If this was a deliberate manipulation effort it failed, however, as the price of the contract rebounded rapidly to its previous level. As more press attention is paid to prediction markets, it is likely that more groups will be motivated to manipulate them. However, in practice, such attempts at manipulation have always proven to be very binare aktion lived.
In their paper entitled "Information Aggregation and Manipulation in an Experimental Market" Hanson, Oprea and Porter George Mason Ushow how attempts at market manipulation can in fact end up increasing the accuracy of the market because they provide that much more profit incentive to binare aktion against the manipulator.
Using real-money prediction market contracts as binare aktion form of insurance can also affect the price of the contract. For example, if the election binare aktion a leader is perceived as negatively impacting the economy, traders may buy binare aktion of binare aktion leader being elected, as a hedge.
These prediction market inaccuracies were especially prevalent during Brexit and the US Presidential Elections. Even until the moment votes were counted, prediction markets leaned heavily on the binare aktion of staying binare aktion the EU and failed to predict the outcomes of the vote. According to Michael Traugotta former president of the American Association for Public Opinion Researchthe reason for the failure of the prediction markets is due to the influence of manipulation and bias shadowed by mass opinion and public opinion.
Similarly, during the US Presidential Elections, prediction markets failed to predict the outcome, throwing the world binare aktion mass shock. Because online gambling is outlawed in the United States through federal laws and many state laws as well, most prediction markets that target US users operate with "play binare aktion rather than "real money": Notable exceptions are the Iowa Electronic Marketswhich binare aktion operated by the University of Iowa under the cover of a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commissionand PredictIt binare aktion, which is operated by Victoria University of Wellington under cover of a similar no-action letter.
Some kinds of prediction markets may create controversial incentives. For example, a market predicting the death of a world leader might be quite useful for binare aktion whose activities are strongly related to binare aktion leader's policies, but it also might turn into an assassination market. A combinatorial prediction market is a type of prediction market where participants can make bets on combinations of outcomes. One difficulty of combinatorial prediction markets is that the number of possible combinatorial trades scales exponentially binare aktion the number of normal trades.
These exponentially large data structures can be too large for a computer to keep track of, so there have been efforts to develop algorithms and rules to make the data more tractable. Sincedecentralized platforms for prediction markets have been in development. These platforms utilize blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies to provide various advantages over centralized markets, but also more challenges for regulators. Some advantages of decentralized prediction markets binare aktion as follows: Some risks associated binare aktion decentralized prediction markets are as follows: From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
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August Learn how and when to remove this template message. Binare aktion 28 August The University of Iowa, Henry B. Tippie College of Business. Archived from the original on 30 November Retrieved 7 November The Wisdom of Crowds. Archived from the original PDF on 12 April Archived from the original PDF on 12 November The New Binare aktion Times. Conde Nast, 28 Jan.
Archived from the original binare aktion 20 April The University of Kansas. Archived PDF from the original on 27 January binare aktion Retrieved February 28, Retrieved 31 January Archived from the original on 7 September Archived from the original on 13 June Archived from the original on 8 October Binare aktion 6 October Putting crowd wisdom to work".